Short CV
I am a climate scientist with 9 years of research experience with data analysis of output from Earth System climate models of different complexity. I enjoy learning about different interactions in the climate system and statistical climate data analysis.
Recently, I am interested in exploring interpretable and physically-informed machine learning and deep learning applications to leverage from a large amount of climate data available and provide more robust estimates of, often policy-relevant, climate metrics.
Recently, I am interested in exploring interpretable and physically-informed machine learning and deep learning applications to leverage from a large amount of climate data available and provide more robust estimates of, often policy-relevant, climate metrics.
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EducationPh.D, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences,
University of Victoria, Canada (2017) Dissertation: The carbon-climate system response at high amounts of cumulative carbon emissions, and the role of non-CO2 forcing and observational constraints on cumulative carbon budgets. Co-Advisors: Dr Nathan P. Gillett and Dr Andrew J. Weaver M.Sc, Faculty of Environment, Simon Fraser University, Canada (2014) Thesis: The role of negative carbon dioxide emissions in climate system reversibility. Advisor: Dr Kirsten Zickfeld B.Sc (with distinction), Faculty of Science, Simon Fraser University, Canada (2012) Physics (major), Economics (minor) International Baccalaureate United World College, Mostar, BiH (2008) |
Postdoctoral Research
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Switzerland
Postdoctoral Researcher (2019 -present)
Climate sensitivity, carbon budgets, and observational constrains on CMIP5 and CMIP6 models.
Interpretable machine learning applications to climate data analysis.
Advisor: Prof. Reto Knutti
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, UK
Postdoctoral Research Associate in Climate Analysis (2017 -2019)
Project: Detection and attribution of anthropogenic and natural signals in the ocean warming.
Deriving observational constraints on the present-day Earth’s energy budget.
Advisor: Prof. Gabriele C. Hegerl
Postdoctoral Researcher (2019 -present)
Climate sensitivity, carbon budgets, and observational constrains on CMIP5 and CMIP6 models.
Interpretable machine learning applications to climate data analysis.
Advisor: Prof. Reto Knutti
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, UK
Postdoctoral Research Associate in Climate Analysis (2017 -2019)
Project: Detection and attribution of anthropogenic and natural signals in the ocean warming.
Deriving observational constraints on the present-day Earth’s energy budget.
Advisor: Prof. Gabriele C. Hegerl
Publications
[21] Matthews, H. D.*, Tokarska, K.B.*, Rogelj, J., Smith, C.J., MacDougall, A. H., Haustein, K., Mengis, N., Sippel, S., Forster, P.M., Knutti, R. An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget. Communications Earth and Environment. 2, 7 (2021). *equal first authors (link, open-access)
[20] Tebaldi, C., Debeire, K., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J., Friedlingstein, P., Knutti, R., Lowe, J., O'Neill, B., Sanderson, B., van Vuuren, D., Riahi, K., Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z., Tokarska, K. B., Hurtt, G., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Meehl, G., Moss, R., Bauer, S. E., Boucher, O., Brovkin, V., Byun, Y.-H., Dix, M., Gualdi, S., Guo, H., John, J. G., Kharin, S., Kim, Y., Koshiro, T., Ma, L., Olivié, D., Panickal, S., Qiao, F., Rong, X., Rosenbloom, N., Schupfner, M., Séférian, R., Sellar, A., Semmler, T., Shi, X., Song, Z., Steger, C., Stouffer, R., Swart, N., Tachiiri, K., Tang, Q., Tatebe, H., Voldoire, A., Volodin, E., Wyser, K., Xin, X., Yang, S., Yu, Y., and Ziehn, T. Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293 (2021). (link, open-access)
[19] Tokarska, K.B.*, Stolpe, M.B.*, Sippel, S., Fischer, E.M., Smith, C.J., Lehner, F., and Knutti, R. Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models. Science Advances, 6, 12, eaaz9549 (2020). (link, open-access) *equal first authors
[18] Tokarska K.B., Hegerl G.C., Schurer A.P., Forster, P.M., and Marvel, K. Observational constraints on the effective climate sensitivity from the historical period. Environmental Research Letters, 15, 034043 (2020). (link, open-access)
[17] Tokarska K.B., Arora, V.K., Gillett, N.P., Lehner, F., Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C-F., Séférian, R., and Knutti, R. Uncertainty in carbon budget estimates due to internal climate variability. Environmental Research Letters, 15, 104064 (2020) (link, open-access)
[16] Matthews, H.D., Tokarska, K.B., Nicholls, Z.R.J., Rogelj,J., Canadell, J.G., Friedlingstein , P., Frölicher, T.L., Forster, P.M., Gillett, N.P., Ilyina, T., Jackson, R.B., Jones, C.D., Koven, C., Knutti, R., MacDougall, A.H., Meinshausen, M., Mengis, M., Séférian, R., Zickfeld, K. Opportunities and challenges in using carbon budgets to guide climate policy. Nature Geoscience. 13, 769–779, (2020) (link, free to read)
[15] McKenna, C.M., Maycock, A.C., Forster, P.M., Smith, C.J., and Tokarska, K.B. Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates. Nature Climate Change (2020/in press) (link, free to read)
[14] S. Sherwood, M. J. Webb, J. D. Annan, K. R. Armour, P. M., Forster, J.C. Hargreaves, G. Hegerl, S. A. Klein, K. D. Marvel, E. Rohling, M. Watanabe, T. Andrews, P. Braconnot, C.S. Bretherton, G. L. Foster, Z. Hausfather, A. von der Heydt, R. Knutti, T. Mauritsen, J. R. Norris, C. Proistosescu, M. Rugenstein, G. A. Schmidt, K.B. Tokarska, M. D. Zelinka. An assessment of Earth’s climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence. Reviews of Geophysics. in press. (2020) (link, open-access)
[13] Tokarska K.B., Schleussner C-F., Rogelj, J., Stolpe, M.B, Pfleiderer, P., and Gillett, N.P. Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy. Nature Geoscience, 12, 64–971 (2019). (link, free to read)
[12] Tokarska K.B., Zickfeld, K., and Rogelj J. Path independence of carbon budgets when meeting a stringent global mean temperature target after an overshoot. Earth’s Future, 7, 1283-1295 (2019). (link, open-access)
[11] Zhang J., Wang, F., Tokarska, K.B., and Yang Z. Multiple possibilities for future precipitation changes in Asia under the Paris Agreement. International Journal of Climatology 1-15 (2020). (link)
[10] Jones, C. D., Frölicher, T. L., Koven, C., MacDougall, A. H., Matthews, H. D., Zickfeld, K., Rogelj, J., Tokarska, K. B., Gillett, N., Ilyina, T., Meinshausen, M., Mengis, N., Séférian, R., Eby, M., and Burger, F.A. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 10, 4375–4385. (2019). (link, open-access)
[9] Tokarska K.B., Hegerl G.C, Schurer A.P., Ribes A., and Fasullo J.T. Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise. Environmental Research Letters. 14, 074020 (2019). (link, open-access)
[8] Sniderman K.J.M., Brown J., Woodhead J.D., King A.D., Gillett N.P., Tokarska K.B., Lorbacher, K.
Hellstrom J., Drysdale R.N., and Meinshausen M. Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying as a transient response to warming. Nature Climate Change, 9, 232–236 (2019). (link, free to read)
[7] Tokarska, K.B. Countdown to 1.5 °C warming. Nature Geoscience, 11, 546–547. (2018). (link, free to read)
[6] Tokarska, K.B., Gillett, N.P., Arora,V.K., Lee,W. G., and Zickfeld, K. The influence of non-CO2 forcings on cumulative carbon emissions budgets. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 034039. (2018). (link, open-access)
[5] Tokarska, K.B. and Gillett, N.P. Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 °C global warming. Nature Climate Change, 8, 296–299. (2018). (link, free to read)
[4] Wang F., Ge Q., Chen D., Luterbacher J., Tokarska K.B., & Haoa, Z. Global and regional climate responses to national-committed emission reductions under the Paris Agreement. Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 100, 240-253 (2018). (link)
[3] Wang F., Tokarska K.B., Ge Q., Zhang, X., Hao Z., & Wu M. Climate warming from emission reductions
consistent with the Paris Agreement. Advances in Meteorology, 2487962 (2018). (link)
[2] Tokarska, K.B., Gillett, N.P., Weaver,A.J., Arora, V.K., and Eby, M. The climate response to five trillion tonnes of carbon. Nature Climate Change, 6, 851–855 (2016). (link, free to read)
[1] Tokarska, K.B. and Zickfeld,K. The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 094013. (2015). (link, open-access)
(See Google Scholar for a full list of up-to-date publications).
[20] Tebaldi, C., Debeire, K., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J., Friedlingstein, P., Knutti, R., Lowe, J., O'Neill, B., Sanderson, B., van Vuuren, D., Riahi, K., Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z., Tokarska, K. B., Hurtt, G., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Meehl, G., Moss, R., Bauer, S. E., Boucher, O., Brovkin, V., Byun, Y.-H., Dix, M., Gualdi, S., Guo, H., John, J. G., Kharin, S., Kim, Y., Koshiro, T., Ma, L., Olivié, D., Panickal, S., Qiao, F., Rong, X., Rosenbloom, N., Schupfner, M., Séférian, R., Sellar, A., Semmler, T., Shi, X., Song, Z., Steger, C., Stouffer, R., Swart, N., Tachiiri, K., Tang, Q., Tatebe, H., Voldoire, A., Volodin, E., Wyser, K., Xin, X., Yang, S., Yu, Y., and Ziehn, T. Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293 (2021). (link, open-access)
[19] Tokarska, K.B.*, Stolpe, M.B.*, Sippel, S., Fischer, E.M., Smith, C.J., Lehner, F., and Knutti, R. Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models. Science Advances, 6, 12, eaaz9549 (2020). (link, open-access) *equal first authors
[18] Tokarska K.B., Hegerl G.C., Schurer A.P., Forster, P.M., and Marvel, K. Observational constraints on the effective climate sensitivity from the historical period. Environmental Research Letters, 15, 034043 (2020). (link, open-access)
[17] Tokarska K.B., Arora, V.K., Gillett, N.P., Lehner, F., Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C-F., Séférian, R., and Knutti, R. Uncertainty in carbon budget estimates due to internal climate variability. Environmental Research Letters, 15, 104064 (2020) (link, open-access)
[16] Matthews, H.D., Tokarska, K.B., Nicholls, Z.R.J., Rogelj,J., Canadell, J.G., Friedlingstein , P., Frölicher, T.L., Forster, P.M., Gillett, N.P., Ilyina, T., Jackson, R.B., Jones, C.D., Koven, C., Knutti, R., MacDougall, A.H., Meinshausen, M., Mengis, M., Séférian, R., Zickfeld, K. Opportunities and challenges in using carbon budgets to guide climate policy. Nature Geoscience. 13, 769–779, (2020) (link, free to read)
[15] McKenna, C.M., Maycock, A.C., Forster, P.M., Smith, C.J., and Tokarska, K.B. Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates. Nature Climate Change (2020/in press) (link, free to read)
[14] S. Sherwood, M. J. Webb, J. D. Annan, K. R. Armour, P. M., Forster, J.C. Hargreaves, G. Hegerl, S. A. Klein, K. D. Marvel, E. Rohling, M. Watanabe, T. Andrews, P. Braconnot, C.S. Bretherton, G. L. Foster, Z. Hausfather, A. von der Heydt, R. Knutti, T. Mauritsen, J. R. Norris, C. Proistosescu, M. Rugenstein, G. A. Schmidt, K.B. Tokarska, M. D. Zelinka. An assessment of Earth’s climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence. Reviews of Geophysics. in press. (2020) (link, open-access)
[13] Tokarska K.B., Schleussner C-F., Rogelj, J., Stolpe, M.B, Pfleiderer, P., and Gillett, N.P. Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy. Nature Geoscience, 12, 64–971 (2019). (link, free to read)
[12] Tokarska K.B., Zickfeld, K., and Rogelj J. Path independence of carbon budgets when meeting a stringent global mean temperature target after an overshoot. Earth’s Future, 7, 1283-1295 (2019). (link, open-access)
[11] Zhang J., Wang, F., Tokarska, K.B., and Yang Z. Multiple possibilities for future precipitation changes in Asia under the Paris Agreement. International Journal of Climatology 1-15 (2020). (link)
[10] Jones, C. D., Frölicher, T. L., Koven, C., MacDougall, A. H., Matthews, H. D., Zickfeld, K., Rogelj, J., Tokarska, K. B., Gillett, N., Ilyina, T., Meinshausen, M., Mengis, N., Séférian, R., Eby, M., and Burger, F.A. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 10, 4375–4385. (2019). (link, open-access)
[9] Tokarska K.B., Hegerl G.C, Schurer A.P., Ribes A., and Fasullo J.T. Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise. Environmental Research Letters. 14, 074020 (2019). (link, open-access)
[8] Sniderman K.J.M., Brown J., Woodhead J.D., King A.D., Gillett N.P., Tokarska K.B., Lorbacher, K.
Hellstrom J., Drysdale R.N., and Meinshausen M. Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying as a transient response to warming. Nature Climate Change, 9, 232–236 (2019). (link, free to read)
[7] Tokarska, K.B. Countdown to 1.5 °C warming. Nature Geoscience, 11, 546–547. (2018). (link, free to read)
[6] Tokarska, K.B., Gillett, N.P., Arora,V.K., Lee,W. G., and Zickfeld, K. The influence of non-CO2 forcings on cumulative carbon emissions budgets. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 034039. (2018). (link, open-access)
[5] Tokarska, K.B. and Gillett, N.P. Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 °C global warming. Nature Climate Change, 8, 296–299. (2018). (link, free to read)
[4] Wang F., Ge Q., Chen D., Luterbacher J., Tokarska K.B., & Haoa, Z. Global and regional climate responses to national-committed emission reductions under the Paris Agreement. Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 100, 240-253 (2018). (link)
[3] Wang F., Tokarska K.B., Ge Q., Zhang, X., Hao Z., & Wu M. Climate warming from emission reductions
consistent with the Paris Agreement. Advances in Meteorology, 2487962 (2018). (link)
[2] Tokarska, K.B., Gillett, N.P., Weaver,A.J., Arora, V.K., and Eby, M. The climate response to five trillion tonnes of carbon. Nature Climate Change, 6, 851–855 (2016). (link, free to read)
[1] Tokarska, K.B. and Zickfeld,K. The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 094013. (2015). (link, open-access)
(See Google Scholar for a full list of up-to-date publications).
Teaching
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
ETH Zürich, Switzerland
Co-supervision of a Master's student
University of Edinburgh, UK
Co-supervision of a Master's student
Guest Lecturer (GL)
METE10003: Physics of Climate: ‘Carbon cycle, carbon budgets, and future climate projections ’, GL
ENVI08001: Sustainability, Society and Environment: ‘Climate change: Science, Impacts and Adaptation’, GL
Teaching Assistant (TA), Guest Lecturer (GL)
University of Victoria, Canada
EOS 365: Climate and Society (x 2) TA, GL
EOS 110: Oceans and Atmosphere (x 3) TA
Simon Fraser University, Canada
Geog 102: World problems in geographic perspective. TA
Geog 104: Climate change, Water and Society. TA, GL
Geog 111: Earth System (x 2). TA
Geog 314: The Climate System. TA
TEACHING CERTIFICATES
Graduate Student Teaching ProD Certificate
A series of professional development activities, obtained at University of Victoria, Canada
Certificate in University Teaching and Learning (CUTL)
A semester-long certificate, obtained at Simon Fraser University, Canada
Instructional Skills Workshop Certificate (ISW)
A three-day workshop at Simon Fraser University, Canada
ETH Zürich, Switzerland
Co-supervision of a Master's student
University of Edinburgh, UK
Co-supervision of a Master's student
Guest Lecturer (GL)
METE10003: Physics of Climate: ‘Carbon cycle, carbon budgets, and future climate projections ’, GL
ENVI08001: Sustainability, Society and Environment: ‘Climate change: Science, Impacts and Adaptation’, GL
Teaching Assistant (TA), Guest Lecturer (GL)
University of Victoria, Canada
EOS 365: Climate and Society (x 2) TA, GL
EOS 110: Oceans and Atmosphere (x 3) TA
Simon Fraser University, Canada
Geog 102: World problems in geographic perspective. TA
Geog 104: Climate change, Water and Society. TA, GL
Geog 111: Earth System (x 2). TA
Geog 314: The Climate System. TA
TEACHING CERTIFICATES
Graduate Student Teaching ProD Certificate
A series of professional development activities, obtained at University of Victoria, Canada
Certificate in University Teaching and Learning (CUTL)
A semester-long certificate, obtained at Simon Fraser University, Canada
Instructional Skills Workshop Certificate (ISW)
A three-day workshop at Simon Fraser University, Canada
Hobbies
Contact
A full CV and references are available upon request.
